Dating books pdf
In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.
In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment.
There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.
The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.
Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.
The estimates of real GDP and GDI issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly.
There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process.
The committee concluded that the behavior of the quarterly series for real GDP and GDI indicates that the trough occurred in mid-2009.
CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.
At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.